Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Cycling Roundup

The pre-Tour form fine tuning races are heating up, and things are looking interesting.

In the Dauphine Libere, which finished up Sunday, Lance Armstrong finished fourth overall (he won the Libere in 2002 and 2003). He had a fourth place going up his nemesis, Mont Ventoux, and a third in the time trial (47K). Alexandre Vinokourov, who finished third in the 2003 Tour de France, won the Mont Ventoux stage and took fifth in the time trial and is looking like he is going to threaten again this year after missing out on last year's Tour due to injury. He's having a good spring.

Here in Switzerland, Jan Ullrich is leading the Tour de Suisse after putting in the best time in the 36K time trial. I'm still trying to find Armstrong and Ullrich's actual speeds in these two time trials, and a bit about the courses, to put together some kind of comparison*. But it's worth remembering that Lance didn't win his tune up race last year and Ullrich did - and Lance went on to have one of his more dominant Tours and Ullrich finished off the podium.

Among other possible contenders, Basso had a great Giro d'Italia and CSC is looking good - it's quite possible that the one day he lost to a stomach virus is the only thing that kept him from a Giro victory. Bobby Jullich is looking good as well. Phonak's Santiago Botero won the Tour de Romandie and took fourth place in the Libere time trial. Phonak seems to have put the chaos of the past year behind them and looks ready to back him. Beloki has been awfully quiet this spring; Simoni had a good but not great Giro. Some of the Euskaltel boys will surely threaten for individual mountain stages, especially in the Pyrénées, but I don't think they're in the mix for the yellow jersey.

The interesting team to watch will be Ullrich and Vinokourov's Telkom**. Once again, it seems that they might have to put together a strategy that keeps two riders within striking distance. It worked for them last year, when Klöden finished second and Ullrich fourth, but it's always tricky and burns up more energy - physical and mental - than focusing on a single rider. In that regard, Armstrong always has an advantage - whatever goes on the rest of the season it's clear that at the Tour de France Discovery (formerly Postal) works for Lance. I'll be interested to see how Discovery looks this Tour - they're sharing the wealth a lot this spring (Savoldelli in the Giro, Hincapie taking some stages in the Libere).

Among the sprinters you have to go with McEwen for the green jersey, but Petacchi will surely be there to make things hard for him. Zabel*** might grab a stage, though I think his green jersey days are behind him.

Young riders? I never know.

Let the racing begin!

* I do know the Libere course had at least one incline, and the riders faced a considerable headwind.

** I meant T-Mobile. Some habits die hard.

*** Edited Thursday to add: I just heard that Zabel will not be riding the Tour de France. Seems that Ullrich wants all the Telkom - sorry!! T-Mobile - riders to be able to serve as helpers in the mountains. Which Zabel certainly never could do. So Ullrich is playing the heavy. I wonder what that means for Vinokourov.

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1 Comments:

At 14:13 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Really nothing to add to this - my wife is a good analyst and very gifted in writing things intelligently and still in a way that I am able to understand and THAT is quite a challenge.


Can you tell that I am proud of her :-)

 

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